Dr. Patrick Asuming, an economist at the University of Ghana Business School (UGBS), has cautioned that it is premature for the Ministry of Finance to declare an economic recovery in the country.
His comments come in the wake of the Ghana Statistical Service’s announcement of a provisional GDP growth of 6.9% for the second quarter of 2024.
While this growth figure exceeds expectations and represents a huge improvement from last year’s 2.5%, Dr. Asuming stressed the need for caution.
He expressed concern that one positive growth reading should not be viewed as definitive evidence of a turnaround.
“I think it is a little too early, and we cannot use one growth reading, or one inflation reading to determine the economy has turned the corner,” he remarked.
The economist pointed out that the Finance Ministry has been “too quick to say that” the economy is back on track, especially when considering other crucial indicators.
Dr. Asuming highlighted the troubling performance of the Cedi and the unfriendliness of the business environment, noting that household incomes have significantly declined.
He stressed, “The number of Ghanaians who are multidimensionally poor has increased.”
This broader perspective indicates that the challenges facing the economy extend beyond just the latest GDP figures.
Despite these warnings, the recent growth statistics suggest a positive trend, with the non-oil GDP growing impressively by 7.0%.
The services sector remains the largest contributor to GDP, followed by industry and agriculture, showing robust year-on-year growth rates.
This diversification presents a promising outlook for Ghana’s future economic stability, but Dr. Asuming’s insights remind us that a complete recovery may still be a distant goal.
