A final poll and predictive analysis released by Global InfoAnalytics ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primaries shows a commanding lead for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, positioning him as the clear frontrunner going into the January 31, 2026 contest.
According to the nationwide survey conducted between December 29, 2025 and January 23, 2026, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia is projected to secure 57 per cent of the valid votes cast by party delegates, well ahead of his closest contender, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, who is predicted to obtain 28 per cent. Dr. Bryan Acheampong follows with 13 per cent, while Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum trails with 2 per cent. Kwabena Agyei Agyepong registers negligible support in the final projection.
The poll, which sampled 10,133 NPP delegates across all 16 regions and 272 constituencies, was conducted using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). Global InfoAnalytics reports a confidence level of 99.9 per cent with a margin of error of ±1.57 per cent, while the predictive model carries a margin of error of ±3.0 per cent.
Beyond voting intentions, the survey highlights strong party optimism about post-primary cohesion, with 88 per cent of respondents expressing confidence that the NPP will remain united after the internal contest. On the broader electoral strategy, 45 per cent of delegates agree that presenting a candidate for a second time could enhance the party’s chances in the 2028 general election, while 23 per cent disagree and 32 per cent remain neutral.
Candidate appeal was largely shaped by perceptions of electability and grassroots connection. The most influential quality driving delegate choice was the belief that a candidate “can win” the 2028 election, followed by caring about the grassroots, the ability to bring change, and the capacity to unite the party. On favourability ratings, all leading contenders recorded high approval levels among delegates, with Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia emerging strongest overall.
Regionally, the committed voters’ model shows Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leading in the majority of regions, including strong performances in Greater Accra, Ashanti, Eastern and Northern regions, reinforcing his nationwide appeal within the party’s delegate base.
Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mr. Mussa K. Dankwah, noted that the predictive trend remained stable in the final days before the close of fieldwork, with only marginal shifts recorded between January 20 and January 23, ultimately consolidating Dr. Bawumia’s lead.
The NPP will head to the polls on January 31, 2026, to elect its flagbearer for the 2028 general elections, with the Global InfoAnalytics report setting clear expectations for a decisive outcome.
