A new poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has positioned Hajia Amina Adams as the clear frontrunner in the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary for the Ayawaso East Constituency, while also suggesting that the party is on course to retain the seat in the upcoming March 2026 by-election.
According to the survey, Hajia Amina Adams, the widow of the late Ayawaso East Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure, enjoys a commanding lead in the NDC primary race, securing 58 per cent of voter preference among delegates and party supporters. Her closest rival, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, Baba Jamal, trails with 32 per cent, placing the contest firmly as a two-horse race.
The poll results were presented by the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, on Thursday, February 5. The remaining aspirants—Muhammed Ramne, Dr Yakubu Azindow and Najib Muhammed Sani—polled 5 per cent, 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively, accounting for a combined 10 per cent of voter preference.
Analysts say Hajia Amina Adams’ strong showing reflects broad grassroots appeal, effective constituency engagement and sympathy support following the passing of her husband. Her 26-point lead over Baba Jamal is considered significant at this advanced stage of the primary process, although observers caution that delegate turnout and last-minute shifts could still influence the final outcome.
Despite trailing, Baba Jamal’s 32 per cent indicates a solid base of support, underpinned by his long-standing political experience and visibility within the constituency and at the national level. Analysts note that his prospects will largely depend on effective delegate mobilisation and his campaign’s ability to consolidate undecided voters ahead of polling day.
Beyond the primary contest, the poll also points to a likely NDC victory in the March 2026 by-election, regardless of which of the two leading contenders emerges as the party’s candidate. In a hypothetical head-to-head contest, Hajia Amina Adams polls 73 per cent against the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate, Baba Ali, who garners 27 per cent. Similarly, Baba Jamal secures a comfortable 67 per cent against Baba Ali’s 33 per cent.
The findings, which were also shared by Mussa Dankwah in a Facebook post, suggest that the Ayawaso East Constituency remains firmly in the NDC’s grip, with party supporters expressing confidence in retaining the seat despite the loss of their sitting MP.
Political observers say the results underscore the NDC’s strong electoral footing in the constituency, while highlighting Hajia Amina Adams as the favourite to lead the party into the by-election, should current trends hold.
