IMF raises concerns over rising trade uncertainty and tariffs

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sounded a stern warning about the rising tide of global trade tensions, particularly following the United States’ sweeping decision to impose a 10% tariff on all its trading partners, including Ghana. With China responding with retaliatory tariffs of 125% and 145%, concerns are mounting about the cascading effects on global commerce, inflation, and economic recovery—especially for developing economies.

Speaking during the 2025 World Bank Group/IMF Spring Meetings, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva painted a sobering picture of the potential fallout. “The complexity of modern supply chains means imported inputs are embedded in a wide range of domestic products. The cost of a single item can be influenced by tariffs in dozens of countries,” she said.

Georgieva emphasized that the unpredictability of bilateral tariff rates is already disrupting global trade logistics and business operations. “In a world of bilateral tariff rates—each potentially shifting up or down—business planning becomes extremely difficult. We’re seeing ships at sea unsure of which port to dock at. Investment and consumer decisions are being delayed,” she noted.

The IMF chief warned that this rising uncertainty is not only hampering trade flows but also shaking financial markets and dampening consumer confidence. “Rising trade barriers impact growth immediately. Tariffs, much like taxes, may raise revenue, but they do so at the expense of reducing and redirecting economic activity,” she stated.

Georgieva further stressed that the consequences of these tariffs extend far beyond the intended targets. “Past experience shows that the burden of higher tariffs isn’t borne solely by trading partners. Importers often absorb part of the cost through lower profits, and consumers ultimately pay more for goods,” she explained.

As countries like Ghana brace for the ripple effects, the IMF’s cautionary stance underscores the urgent need for cooperative solutions and trade policy stability. The fear is that prolonged escalation in protectionist policies could derail fragile economic recoveries and deepen disparities between advanced and developing economies.