A new tracking poll by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed a rapidly tightening contest within the National Democratic Congress (NDC), with Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson emerging as a strong challenger to party chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia ahead of the party’s 2028 flagbearer race.
The poll, conducted between March 31 and April 9, 2026, among nearly 10,400 delegates across all 16 regions, shows Asiedu Nketia maintaining the lead with 29 percent support. However, his once commanding advantage has narrowed significantly within a week, pointing to an increasingly competitive race.
In the first round of the survey, Asiedu Nketia led with 28 percent compared to Ato Forson’s 12 percent, establishing a 16-point gap. But in the second round, Ato Forson surged to 19 percent, cutting the margin to just 10 points.
The shift appears to be driven largely by a consolidation of undecided voters. The proportion of respondents yet to make a choice dropped sharply from 36 percent in Week 1 to 24 percent in Week 2, suggesting that as the race gains clarity, support is beginning to coalesce around leading contenders.
Political analysts say Ato Forson’s rise is particularly noteworthy given that he has not formally declared his intention to contest. Despite this, his growing support base indicates strong grassroots appeal and positions him as a credible alternative within the party.
Other contenders trail behind, with Haruna Iddrisu polling 11 percent, while Julius Debrah and Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang each secured 8 percent. The remaining candidates collectively accounted for just 1 percent, underscoring a race increasingly dominated by a few key figures.
Head-to-head comparisons further illustrate the tightening dynamics. In a direct contest, Asiedu Nketia leads Ato Forson 37 percent to 32 percent, a significantly narrower margin than his advantage over other contenders.
Regional data also highlights potential vulnerabilities in the chairman’s support base. In the Northern Region, Haruna Iddrisu commands 35 percent support, while Asiedu Nketia trails with 26 percent. Meanwhile, in key swing regions such as Greater Accra, Central, Eastern and Western, both Nketia and Ato Forson are tied at 28 percent, signalling a competitive balance in electorally decisive areas.
Despite maintaining the lead, Asiedu Nketia’s ongoing nationwide “thank you” tour appears to have had limited impact in expanding his support base, with only marginal gains recorded.
The poll findings were shared by the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, on Monday, April 13, 2026. According to the data, the narrowing gap suggests that while Asiedu Nketia remains the frontrunner in the NDC’s “top-of-the-mind” baseline survey, his dominance is increasingly being challenged.
With a significant portion of delegates still undecided and no official declarations from some key figures, the race for the NDC’s 2028 flagbearer slot remains fluid, setting the stage for what could become one of the party’s most competitive internal contests in recent years.
