ECOWAS is at a crossroads following the withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, a move that could trigger deeper institutional fractures within the regional body.
Colonel Festus Aboagye (Retired), in his latest research titled ‘The Great ECOWAS Rupture: Modelling the Aftermath of West Africa’s Regional Fragmentation‘ released on February 19, 2025, warned that ECOWAS must rapidly reform or risk losing its influence in West Africa.
“Political tensions are rising, and unless structural changes occur, more nations may reconsider their membership,” Aboagye stated.
The report highlights concerns raised by scholars such as Obadare and Patel (2024), who argue that the AES departure could exacerbate existing ideological divisions within ECOWAS, particularly regarding governance and security policies.
Aboagye further stressed that the organization’s effectiveness is being questioned, as long-delayed reforms, including conflict resolution protocols, have yet to be implemented.
Security concerns are also mounting. According to Aboagye’s findings, the AES prioritizing national security over regional frameworks could intensify cross-border insurgencies and migration pressures.
“ECOWAS faces mounting difficulties in addressing instability in the Sahel. Counterterrorism measures must be adapted to this changing landscape,” he noted.
Amid these shifts, external actors such as Russia and China are strengthening their regional ties, posing additional challenges for ECOWAS.
“The organization must redefine its role, or risk becoming increasingly irrelevant,” Aboagye warned, emphasizing the need for urgent action to prevent further disintegration.
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Ruth Sekyi – ABC News GH
