Petrol and diesel prices are projected to fall from October 16, offering motorists and businesses some relief, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is expected to record a sharp increase, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
In its outlook for the second pricing window of October 2026, COMAC forecasts a 1.67% reduction in petrol prices and a 3.32% decline in diesel prices.
Based on cash purchases, petrol is expected to sell at GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel is projected at GH¢19.30 per litre.
The anticipated reductions could ease transportation and operating costs for businesses and households. However, actual prices at the pumps may vary among Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), depending on their respective charges and margins.
A government-industry intervention aimed at cushioning consumers against rising fuel costs also remains in place to help moderate diesel prices.
LPG Prices Expected to Rise by 18.50%
While petrol and diesel prices are expected to decline, LPG prices are projected to increase by 18.50% during the same period.
COMAC’s outlook puts the expected cash-purchase price of LPG at GH¢20.60 per kilogramme, a development that could increase cooking expenses for households and businesses that depend on the fuel.
The divergent price projections follow mixed movements in international petroleum product prices during the review period. LPG prices on the international market rose by 7.77%, while diesel and petrol prices declined by 6.68% and 3.93%, respectively.
Cedi depreciation threatens fuel price relief
Exchange rate movements remain a potential risk to the expected reductions in petrol and diesel prices.
The cedi depreciated by 1.61% against the US dollar over the review period, with the average bank rate reaching GH¢11.8222 to the dollar between September 26 and October 11, 2026.
The local currency has also lost more than 11% of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year, amid seasonal demand for imports and rising energy costs.
Ghana’s reliance on imported refined petroleum products means that a weaker cedi increases the amount of local currency required to purchase fuel on the international market. Further depreciation could therefore offset some of the gains from falling international petroleum product prices and place renewed pressure on pump prices.
NPA Sets Minimum Prices for Second October Window
The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has also set minimum price floors for petroleum products for the second October pricing window, reflecting the projected declines in petrol and diesel prices and the increase in LPG prices.
Petrol’s minimum price will be GH¢16.09 per litre, down from GH¢16.45 in the first October window. Diesel’s floor will decrease from GH¢17.97 to GH¢17.09 per litre.
In contrast, the minimum price for LPG will increase from GH¢11.10 to GH¢13.87 per kilogramme.
The minimum price floors are established under the Petroleum Product Pricing Guidelines (PPPG) and are intended to guide pricing by OMCs and LPG Marketing Companies (LPGMCs) during the applicable window.
However, the floors do not include premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), or the marketing and dealer margins applied by OMCs and LPGMCs.
These additional charges are determined separately by the respective companies in line with the pricing guidelines.
Actual prices at the pumps may therefore vary across fuel stations and LPG outlets, depending on the additional costs and margins applied.
