Economist and Political Risk Analyst, Dr Theo Acheampong, has noted that the recent spate of coups across the Continent threatens the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement.
According to him, the continent-wide trade pact cannot take place amidst the ongoing coups which he asserts, is very likely to continue.
“We have not seen the end of the coups and are likely to see more of it as the root causes of the coups which include both internal and external drivers still exist.
“In the midst of the constant coups, AfCFTA cannot happen and ao it becomes imperative that we have an environment that is stable to facilitate intra-trading under the AfCFTA,” he quipped speaking on the NorvanReports X Space discussion titled “Africa’s Coup D’etats and Business Landscape: Effects on Investments and Economic Stability”, on Sunday, September 3, 2023.
UNCTAD forecasts show that the AfCFTA could boost intra-African trade by about 33% and cut the continent’s trade deficit by 51%.
Intra-continental trade constitutes less than 13% of Africa’s total trade, in comparison to 66.9% in Europe, 63.8% in Asia & Oceania, and 44.4% in the Americas.
The dependence on external markets leaves the continent highly exposed to crises and shocks in other parts of the world, as showcased by the impact of COVID-19 and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Speaking further during the discussion, Dr. Acheampong noted that given the recent spate of coups, Africa faces another lost decade of economic growth as was the case in the 1970s.
He noted that coups derail economic growth and in many cases lead to the continuous decline in foreign direct investment inflows for many years.
Further stating that coups on the continent feed into the popular notion held by foreign creditors that Africa is unstable and hence the high premiums placed on loans given to African countries by foreign creditors.
A spate of eight coups in the last three years, including the recent ouster of Gabon’s president by soldiers, has highlighted why military takeovers are returning in African countries.
Early Wednesday, military officers seized power after an announcement that President Ali Bongo had secured a third term in an election, ending his family’s 56-year hold on power.
In Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, and Chad, coup leaders are still in control despite widespread condemnation and sanctions.
Security analysts said these power grabs threaten a reversal of Africa’s democratisation process in the past two decades and a return to the era of coups as the norm.
Out of the 486 attempted or successful military coups carried globally since 1950, Africa accounts for the most significant number, with 214, of which at least 106 have been successful, according to a survey compiled by American researchers Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne.
The survey also showed at least 45 of the 54 nations across the African continent have experienced at least a single coup attempt since 1950.
