Ghana is set to transition from its International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout programme into a new phase of economic policy coordination after the Fund issued its end-of-mission assessment following the 2026 Article IV consultation and final review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).
The IMF said Ghana’s ECF-supported programme had delivered “substantial stabilisation gains,” citing declining inflation, improved foreign reserves, renewed confidence in the cedi, and stronger fiscal performance.
According to the Fund, Ghana exceeded its primary surplus targets in 2025, while the country’s public debt ratio recorded a sharp decline. Economic growth also outperformed expectations, supported by strong gold export earnings and broad-based economic activity.
Despite the progress, the IMF noted delays in some structural reforms and cautioned that “sustaining the reform momentum is critical” to preserving recent gains.
The Fund further warned that Ghana remains vulnerable to global economic shocks, particularly geopolitical tensions and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which could increase energy, food, and fertiliser prices.
It said the uncertain external environment underscores the need for prudent macroeconomic policies and stronger resilience-building measures.
On debt restructuring, the IMF acknowledged what it described as significant progress in improving Ghana’s debt outlook. Bilateral agreements have reportedly been reached with nearly half of official creditors under the G20 Common Framework, while discussions with remaining creditors are ongoing.
The IMF also pointed to Ghana’s successful return to the domestic Treasury bond market as evidence of recovering investor confidence.
To maintain debt sustainability and secure long-term market access, the Fund urged the government to maintain prudent borrowing practices, implement its debt rollover strategy for 2027–2028, and improve debt management and transparency.
As Ghana exits the ECF programme, the IMF announced plans to support the country through a proposed 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financing arrangement aimed at sustaining reform discipline and policy coordination.
The PCI framework will focus on growth-friendly fiscal adjustment, debt sustainability, fiscal transparency, state-owned enterprise reforms, monetary and exchange rate policy strengthening, financial sector stability, and economic diversification.
The IMF noted that improved debt dynamics have created “carefully calibrated fiscal space” that could support social interventions, youth employment initiatives, and broader development spending.
However, it warned that the fiscal space must be managed cautiously to preserve Ghana’s debt anchor target of 45 percent of GDP by 2034.
The Fund indicated that reducing the primary surplus target to 0.5 percent of GDP from 2027 would only remain sustainable if public financial management reforms are strengthened.
It identified fiscal risk management, governance of state-owned enterprises, and the control of quasi-fiscal activities as priority areas requiring urgent attention.
The IMF also raised concerns about losses linked to the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP), saying such quasi-fiscal operations weaken the balance sheet of the Bank of Ghana.
It therefore recommended greater transparency in central bank operations, recognition of related costs within the national budget, limitations on quasi-fiscal activities, and measures to strengthen the Bank of Ghana’s financial position.
On the financial sector, the IMF acknowledged progress in recapitalisation and regulatory reforms but stressed the need for continued efforts to reduce non-performing loans, strengthen banking supervision, and resolve weaker financial institutions, particularly state-owned entities.
The Fund additionally singled out Ghana’s energy sector as a major fiscal risk area, urging reforms at the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) to improve operational efficiency.
Key recommendations included reducing distribution and collection losses, improving payment discipline, lowering generation costs, advancing private sector participation in power distribution, and clearing legacy arrears.
In the cocoa sector, the IMF said recent policy interventions had offered some relief but argued that deeper reforms remain necessary to ensure long-term sustainability.
It recommended strengthening the legal and financial framework of COCOBOD, improving operational efficiency and cost control, and introducing more frequent farmgate price adjustments.
The IMF also called for stronger governance and anti-corruption reforms, particularly in relation to asset declaration systems, stressing that increased transparency and public disclosure would improve accountability and investor confidence.
While commending Ghana’s resilience and economic recovery efforts, the Fund cautioned against a return to previous cycles of fiscal instability, rising debt levels, and weak economic buffers.
It concluded that sustained fiscal discipline, stronger institutions, and accelerated reforms would be critical to securing long-term economic stability, resilience, and inclusive private sector-led growth.
