A new opinion poll by Global InfoAnalytics shows the Kpandai parliamentary by-election shaping up as a tight contest, with the New Patriotic Party’s candidate, Mathew Nyindam, holding a slim lead over the National Democratic Congress’ Daniel Nsala Wakpal.
According to the poll conducted between December 11 and 13, 2025, Nyindam commands 50 percent of voter support, while Wakpal follows closely with 46 percent.
Three percent of respondents remain undecided, with one percent indicating support for other candidates.
The pollsters note that the four-point gap falls within the margin of error of ±3.9 percent, effectively making the race a statistical dead heat.
The survey also reveals limited voter movement between the two leading candidates, with two percent of Nyindam’s previous voters switching to Wakpal and an equal proportion moving in the opposite direction.
However, Nyindam appears to benefit from a significant shift among voters who previously backed an independent candidate in the 2024 election, with 28 percent of that group now supporting him.
On performance, voters offered mixed assessments of Nyindam’s brief tenure in Parliament before the seat was declared vacant. While 32 percent rated his performance as good or very good, 36 percent described it as average, and 29 percent rated it poor or very poor.
Beyond the constituency race, the poll indicates generally positive national sentiment. 66 percent of respondents believe Ghana is headed in the right direction, while 26 percent say the country is on the wrong path.
President John Mahama’s job approval stands at 64 percent, with 27 percent disapproving of his performance. Jobs emerged as the dominant issue influencing voter choice in Kpandai, cited by 34 percent of respondents, followed by the economy at 18 percent and road infrastructure at 15 percent.
Economic perceptions also appear largely positive. More than half of respondents (54 per cent) said their personal economic situation has improved since President John Dramani Mahama took office, 34 per cent said it has not changed, and 11 per cent said it has deteriorated.
Looking ahead, 64 per cent of voters expressed optimism that their standard of living would improve over the next 12 months.
The poll identifies jobs as the most important issue influencing voters’ choices in the re-run election, cited by 34 per cent of respondents. This is followed by the economy (18 per cent) and roads (15 per cent), underscoring the central role of bread-and-butter issues in the campaign.
With a 99 per cent confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.9 per cent, the Kpandai by-election is promising to be one of the tightest contests, as voters’ final decisions are expected to determine the outcome.
